Notre Dame is a touchdown-plus favorite over top-ranked Miami for Saturday night’s game in South Bend. Caesars Sports moved the line to Notre Dame -7.5 after Hurricanes receiver Malachi Toney was ruled out with an ankle injury, FOX Sports reported. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Why the line moved three points in four days
Caesars opened Notre Dame -4.5, reached -5.5 on Sunday, then stopped at -6, -6.5 and -7 on Wednesday before landing at -7.5 (-102), according to FOX Sports. The network tied the Wednesday moves to Toney, who was a Heisman contender and was hurt in practice. He is out Saturday and likely for much longer.
Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said Thursday the book was still seeing decent two-way action. He expected the game to be among the biggest-bet college football games of the season.
How big is Notre Dame vs. Miami on Saturday night? Got together with @Manny_Navarro to hash out a matchup that has a different vibe without Malachi Toney. Can the Irish get it done? Will the Canes spring a surprise?https://t.co/e71zKEEVMS
Some terms: a spread is a margin of victory set by oddsmakers. Against the spread
records whether a team beat that margin. Notre Dame is 7-1 straight up and 4-4 against the spread; Miami is 8-0 and 5-3. The Irish’s only loss was 28-24 at BYU in Week 7.
The ranking is different from the betting line. Miami is No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, while Notre Dame is No. 11 there. In the AP poll, CBS Sports and ESPN list the Irish at No. 4.
History is the blueprint. We decide what happens next. Game 9 | Miami#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/X8MAsBHOaX
Where Notre Dame’s defense meets Miami’s run game
State of The U’s film preview cites ESPN giving Notre Dame a 61.3% win expectancy as a 4.5-point home favorite. That was the earlier line. It also puts the Irish third in SP+, a ratings system, and Miami fifth.
The scoring numbers are lopsided in different directions. Notre Dame allows 13.4 points per game, third in FBS. Miami scores 43.4, first, and converts 55% of third downs, second nationally. Penalties split them too: Notre Dame averages 28.9 penalty yards a game, first, while Miami averages 66.4, 107th.
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Sharp Football Analysis looks at the ground game. Miami sends its backs between the tackles on 58% of carries, and Notre Dame has allowed 3.0 yards per attempt there, the nation’s fourth-lowest rate. Yards before contact
measures what a back gains before a defender touches him, a gauge of blocking. Miami’s runners gain three or more yards before contact on 27% of carries. Notre Dame ranks third in yards after contact allowed.
Sharp also notes the Irish have not replaced running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, so their own run game may struggle against Miami. Saturday Down South says Notre Dame has scored on 59% of its possessions and calls Miami’s defense struggling.
Mario Cristobal struggles in road games against ranked opponents
Sharp’s analysis says Mario Cristobal is 1-5 at Miami, and 3-15 as a head coach, on the road against teams that finish in the AP Top 25. Miami has won once in 11 trips to South Bend, in 1984, CBS Sports noted. Last year Miami won 27-24 at home in Week 1; FOX Sports says that game mattered to the Playoff picture, and Miami later lost the title game to Indiana.
From 31-30 to the 26-year pause
The rivalry’s high point came on October 15, 1988, when No. 4 Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-30. Sporting News recalls the “Catholics vs. Convicts” T-shirt handed to broadcaster Brent Musburger outside the stadium. He said: I opened it up and immediately laughed because ‘Catholics vs. Convicts,’ OK?
Notre Dame won that year’s national title, and Miami won in 1987 and 1989. The sources describe a bitter Miami-Notre Dame rivalry that began with Miami’s 58-7 rout in 1985 and flared through the late 1980s, but they do not say CNN reported that it ended the series after a 1990 game.
What a loss would cost, and who is watching
FOX Sports says Notre Dame has little wiggle room at No. 11. NBC’s Noah Eagle and analyst Todd Blackledge returned to South Bend this week to call the Miami-Notre Dame game on Saturday night, according to the South Bend Tribune.
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Recruits are visiting too, Yahoo Sports/HEAVY reported. They include five-star linebacker Kaden Henderson, who is committed to Texas A&M, and four-star running back Xander Edwards.
For fans attending, WNDU says the Golden Lot opens at 7 a.m. for pre-sold passes, other lots at 8 a.m., and stadium gates at 6 p.m. Saint Mary’s College parking costs $40 per car.
Musburger, who will do a voiceover for NBC before the game, said the 1988 game still lives because of controversy going in and coming out.