The flu has almost disappeared, “but next year it will be more aggressive.” The fear of US scientists

What about the flu? What happened to the flu after months of strict measures against Covid? Even our seasonal illness seems to have been overwhelmed by the pandemic, with a significant retreat in all countries of the world, so much so that in the United States they are beginning to wonder what effects this novelty could cause as early as next year. In a long report by CNN, American experts warned of possible developments, also advancing the hypothesis that in winter the flu could present itself with greater virulence precisely because of the prolonged period of hiatus.

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“Influenza has not been on the same level as last year anywhere in the world, with the exception of some activity in West Africa,” Richard Webby, an influenza specialist at St. Jude children’s research, told CNN. hospital in Memphis. In particular, in the United States there have been only a few thousand cases compared to the tens of millions in the past. Naturally, it is thought that this depends on the distancing and protection measures taken against Covid which have also indirectly but drastically reduced the spread of other viruses. But the causes, beyond this, could also be other. The US experts, in fact, have highlighted a curious phenomenon: “Influenza has not been seen anywhere in the world, neither in the countries that have decided the lockdown nor in those that have not decided it, nor where it has occurred. a good job against the pandemic nor where this has not happened, ”Webby added to CNN. The reason? It is not entirely clear.

Some experts, however, fear that next fall’s flu in the US may be more aggressive than usual. “This could be the worst flu season we’ve ever had,” Webby told CNN. “When he comes back, it could be a crazy season,” agreed Aubree Gordon, an epidemiologist who studies influenza at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. The risk would all be caused by human behavior. People tired of the prolonged period of lockdown, distancing and the mask will probably want to regain their lost freedom. Travel, CNN points out, is already on the rise, restaurants are filling up and schools are planning to return to face-to-face classes after the summer. But if this, thanks to the vaccination campaign and the retreat of the virus, should not lead to a resurgence of the pandemic, it will certainly make it easier for the flu to return.

“With a greater number of individuals not wearing masks and with less social distancing there will certainly be an increase in the common respiratory infections that we see seasonally,” argued researchers studying the spread of infectious diseases: “We should expect growth there are cases especially in autumn when the children return to school ». And in any case, the phenomenon will not only concern the flu but also “all other respiratory viruses, including the cold,” explained Richard Webby. “I think that while the mitigation measures we have put in place for Covid are dropping, as the youngest go back to school and start traveling again, especially internationally, it is inevitable that all types of respiratory viruses have many more opportunities for dissemination, ”Lynette Brammer, who leads the domestic flu surveillance team of the CDC, the US Centers for Disease Control, told CNN. “And we certainly expect the flu and all the other respiratory viruses that have dropped in the last year to return,” he added: “In a sense we are returning to normal.”

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Another reason why the 2021/22 flu season could reserve some surprises, according to American experts, lies in a theory yet to be explored: it is possible that the immune response of the human body is enhanced by repeated annual exposure to viruses such as ‘influence. Exposures that have decreased in the last year. However, one thing seems certain: the trend of the flu is impossible to predict. “I don’t know what to expect. Whenever you think you know what’s going to happen, he’ll do something completely different, “Brammer said.” We just have to wait and see. “