The key points
- Exchange rates: 55% operators focus on stable euro / dollar exchange rates
- Spread: inflation concerns weigh on outlook, only 32% see it below 100 pt
The optimism for the prospects of Piazza Affari in the coming months is further strengthened. This is what emerges from the May survey conducted by Assiom Forex among its associates in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore. In fact, the percentage of those expecting new earnings for the stock markets rises from 64% to 70%, gains that for 6% will be very substantial, or more than 10%. On the other hand, the sample of those expecting stable markets dropped from 26% to 17% and the percentage of those who believe a phase of turbulence with decreases in share values rose from 10% to 13%. “The positive trend of the vaccination campaign and the economic recovery that is consolidating in the main world areas – explains the president of Assiom Forex Massimo Mocio – also bodes well for the second half of the year. This is the view of most of the operators who in May continue to deal with an optimism that focuses above all on post-Covid “reconstruction” and is betting on the positive effects that the investments originating from the Recovery Fund will determine in Europe. Without forgetting that in the US, Americans will benefit from unprecedented fiscal stimuli: a mix that, barring unforeseen events that cannot be monitored at the moment, should continue to support company profits and stock market indices ”.
Exchange rates: 55% operators focus on stable euro / dollar exchange rates
The euro / dollar ratio, which in recent weeks has seen the common currency further strengthen and consolidate above 1.20, should remain stable over the next few months. According to 55% of operators, in fact, the cross / euro dollar should remain stable, a practically stable performance compared to a month ago (54%). According to a further sample of 25%, on the other hand, the euro could strengthen further (with 2% seeing it rising sharply) while on the opposite front a weakening of the common currency is taken into account by 20% of operators. “The Eurodollar could begin to discount the effects of a more accelerated American growth than expected – explains Mocio – and therefore the first rate hike by the Fed could approach after years of Quantitative Easing. In this perspective, operators favor a substantial stability of the euro / dollar exchange rate ”.
Spread: inflation concerns weigh on outlook, only 32% see it below 100 pt
The recent tensions on long-term yields, indicating fears of a faster and stronger acceleration of inflation than expected, weigh to some extent on the outlook for the development of the spread in the coming months. In fact, in May the percentage of those who see the spread fall steadily below 100 points (compared to 108 at today’s opening) from 34% to 32%, while for 59% (from 62%) the spread will remain between 100 and 150 points. Consequently, the sample of those who do not exclude a blaze that brings the differential in a stable manner above 150 points rises from 4% to 9%. “The forecast on the trend of the BTP-Bund spread still raises some concern – argues Mocio – The reading that operators give implies that fears relating to a possible return of inflation in Europe may affect in particular the countries with the highest debt like Italy, especially if in the future the huge purchases of public securities by the ECB should cease ”.