The progressive robotization of many work activities is under the lens of experts. The fear of many is that it could have an impact on employment levels. Now a new study shows that jobs will grow with robots. During the seven-year period (2011-2018), the introduction of industrial robots did not produce negative effects on the employment rate, indeed, albeit to a limited extent, it contributed to the reduction in the unemployment rate. This is what emerges from the study “Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics” edited by researchers from the National Institute for Public Policy Analysis (INAPP), University of Trento and the Institute of Statistics of the Province of Trento (ISPAT), which will be presented tomorrow as part of the Workshop “Firms and Workers at the Crossroad: Automation and Market Power” which will take place in Trento via videoconference on the occasion of the closing of the homonymous research project funded by the Caritro Foundation of Trento.
The result of the survey highlights important differences related to the jobs of the workers. In fact, on the one hand, the occupational categories potentially exposed to the risk of substitution by industrial robots do not seem overall to have been affected by the introduction of the latter. On the other hand, the jobs for “robot workers”, that is to say all those professionals who, at different levels, deal with the programming, installation and maintenance of robots, increased by about 50% in just under ten years, with a significantly greater increase in areas characterized by a more intense use of industrial robots.
In particular, the study shows that a 1% increase in robot adoption leads to an increase of 0.29 percentage points in the local share of robot operators, an effect that can fully explain the increase of about 50%. of these workers. This result is consistent with the idea that if companies invest more in robots, the number of workers performing complementary activities also increases: this phenomenon is known as the reinstatement effect. Furthermore, over the last decade, the introduction of industrial robots in our country does not seem to have generated even a contraction in jobs with a high routine content. On the contrary, the results of the survey suggest that in the areas with the most intense robotisation the share of routine cognitive occupations has even increased.
While the impact of robots on routine occupations is negligible, the same cannot be said for occupations that require physical effort from the worker. In particular, the introduction of robots seems to have contributed to statistically significantly reduce the relative weight of occupations that involve intense torso and, in particular, the abdominal and lumbar muscles. Instead, it appears to have favored the growth, albeit to a lesser extent, of the share of professions associated with the control and use of machinery and, in general, complementary to automation processes.
Taken together, the results of the analysis reveal the complex nature of the relationship between robotization and labor market dynamics. In fact, if on the one hand it is undeniable that the introduction of robots leads to the automation of activities for which the use of human labor was previously necessary, it is equally true that every occupation consists of many different activities and only a few of these. they can be performed autonomously by robots.
“This survey is very significant because it shows that we must not be afraid of robots, which can be more of an opportunity than a disadvantage for the world of work – explained prof. Sebastiano Fadda, president of INAPP – On the other hand, technology already pervades every professional sphere with different results depending on the situation, from medicine to agriculture, from mechanics to the insurance sector. The “robots” already make work more efficient and at the same time free people from repetitive, unqualified and tiring tasks, allowing them to take on more rewarding (and productive) tasks. However, the theme of all those occupations that must be redeveloped with a deep reskilling for the use of automation and artificial intelligence remains hanging. If in the last century the conflict between capitalists and workers was very bitter, today and in the future we must avoid a new conflict between robots and workers, but we must commit ourselves to developing appropriate strategies so that the reduction of the technical coefficients of production linked to new technologies does not give rise to the phenomenon of “technological unemployment”.
According to prof. Stefano Schiavo, Director of the School of International Studies of the University of Trento which organizes the Workshop «robotization is one of the numerous global drivers which, by influencing companies, workers and territories, contributes to changing the Italian socio-economic fabric. The empirical analysis of these global phenomena is an essential element to identify effective policy solutions and to proceed with reskilling, even more urgent in consideration of the changes induced by the pandemic. Also for this reason, the relationship between Covid and automation is already the subject of further study by the colleagues who conducted the study “.