Southeast Asia: A Shifting Balance of Power – Can the US Reclaim Influence?
The Indo-Pacific is undergoing a dramatic realignment, and Southeast Asia – strategically positioned at its heart – is squarely in the crosshairs. Co-Chairs Price and Schriver’s recent testimony highlighted a stark reality: the United States is losing ground to China in this critical region. But is this a foregone conclusion? Examining the data, the shifting perceptions, and the nuances of regional diplomacy reveals a complex landscape where the US still holds cards—and a renewed strategy is urgently needed.
The ISEAS Poll: A Watershed Moment
Recent polling data from the Institute of Strategic and Economic Studies (ISEAS) paints a compelling picture. For the first time in its annual survey, China edged out the United States as the preferred alignment partner among Southeast Asian elites – 50.5% to 49.5%. This isn’t simply a matter of opinion; the breakdown reveals underlying trends. In seven out of ten ASEAN countries – Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Brunei, Myanmar, and Thailand – support for the U.S. has demonstrably declined. The magnitude of the shift is striking: in Malaysia, support plummeted by 20 percentage points, while in Indonesia and Cambodia, it dropped by 20% and 18% respectively. Notably, in Singapore and Vietnam—typically strong U.S. allies – support saw modest gains, but remained significantly below the level of China.
Did you know? The ISEAS poll consistently highlights the primacy of economic considerations in shaping Southeast Asian foreign policy. It’s not ideology driving these shifts, but tangible benefits.
Why Southeast Asia is Turning Towards China: Economic Pull
The primary driver of this shift is, undeniably, China’s economic dominance. China has become ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 2009, a position it is firmly entrenched in. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), finalized in 2020, further solidified this connection, creating a vast free trade area encompassing all ten ASEAN member states. Beyond trade, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has invested heavily in critical infrastructure across the region, from the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail in Indonesia to the Boten-Vientiane railway linking Laos to China’s high-speed network. These projects offer critical infrastructure connectivity, jobs, and economic opportunity that the United States has struggled to match.
Pro Tip: While the U.S. offers the CPTPP, China’s BRI is consistently seen as a more dynamic and accessible alternative.
The Gaza Factor: A Critical Turning Point
However, the U.S. approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict has dramatically accelerated this trend. The 2024 ISEAS poll revealed a sharp and concerning drop in support for the U.S. across the region, particularly among Muslim-majority countries. A staggering 75% of Malaysian respondents, 73% of Indonesian respondents, and 70% of Bruneian respondents favored aligning with China over the United States. This dramatic shift underscores the deep impact of the U.S. stance on perceived hypocrisy and double standards in international affairs. The sentiment echoes across the region, with residents gripping about the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.
Diminishing U.S. Influence: A Multifaceted Challenge
Several factors contribute to the decline in U.S. influence beyond the Gaza crisis:
- Economic Disconnect: The U.S. is lagging behind China economically, failing to match the scale and dynamism of Chinese investment and trade.
- The Strategic Mirage: The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, while well-intentioned, has struggled to translate into concrete benefits for Southeast Asian partners.
- Alliance Erosion: Recent actions have strained relationships with key allies, particularly in Thailand, fueled by skepticism regarding U.S. reliability and a desire to maintain strategic balance between Washington and Beijing.
China’s Diplomatic Prowess: A Subtle but Powerful Strategy
China’s approach has been remarkably consistent and nuanced. It actively cultivates strategic partnerships with nearly all ASEAN members, framing these relationships as “comprehensive strategic partnerships” – a clear signal of intent. China’s pandemic diplomacy during the COVID-19 crisis was particularly effective, providing vital vaccines and medical supplies to the region. Furthermore, China has skillfully navigated the South China Sea dispute, focusing on economic incentives, quiet diplomacy, and avoiding direct confrontation, fostering stability.
FAQ: Why hasn’t China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea led to more backlash? Due to the region’s pragmatism and desire for economic opportunities alongside effective diplomatic maneuvering from Beijing.
Rebuilding U.S. Influence: A Path Forward
Reclaiming influence in Southeast Asia requires a fundamental shift in approach. It’s not about attempting to replicate China’s economic power—that’s impossible. Instead, the U.S. must focus on strengthening existing alliances, offering targeted economic assistance, and reaffirming its commitment to upholding international law. Prioritizing strategic investments in sectors like digital infrastructure, clean energy, and critical minerals—and demonstrating a credible commitment to these investments—is crucial. Recognizing and nurturing its traditional allies—such as the Philippines is paramount.
Call to Action: Share your thoughts on the future of U.S.-Southeast Asia relations. What strategies do you believe are most effective for the United States to maintain its influence in a rapidly changing regional landscape?
Related Article: America Is Losing Southeast Asia – Read the original analysis that sparked this discussion.