Original title: Sponsor anxiety, Japan has no right to cancel, Tokyo Olympics is in a dilemma
The countdown is less than 50 days!
Under the weight of the epidemic, the Tokyo Olympics are becoming a dilemma.
At present, many places in Japan are in the extended period of the third wave of emergency. According to the Japanese government’s previous plan, this round of emergency will be postponed to June 20. As for whether it can be successfully lifted on June 20, it will be based on various medical indicators in the above-mentioned regions, such as the severe disease rate of new coronary patients and the occupancy of beds.
Different from the previous two rounds, this round of emergency in Japan is also related to the fate of the Tokyo Olympics more than a month later. It has been less than 50 days since the opening of the Tokyo Olympics on July 23, and various preparations are entering the “embarrassing” sprint stage.
Will it be cancelled, or will it be held as scheduled? I am afraid that no one will know the answer until the last moment. This is true even for the Japanese government. A few days ago, many local governments in Japan hope that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga can decide on various matters concerning the Tokyo Olympics as soon as possible, such as the reception of spectators at the stadium. “We don’t want to rush into battle at the last minute.”
A recent poll conducted by Japanese media from the 4th to the 6th showed that 48% of the respondents still believe that the Tokyo Olympics should be cancelled. In addition, 24% of the interviewees believed that the Tokyo Olympics should be held “with restricted numbers,” and 26% of the interviewees believed that the Tokyo Olympics should be held behind closed doors. 63% of the interviewees believed that the Japanese government’s anti-epidemic measures for overseas players and related personnel were “not adequate”.
Cancel or continue
Although the proportion of “disapproval of the Olympic Games” in the latest poll has eased compared to before, there are still variables in the face of repeated epidemics.
One of the contracts between the International Olympic Committee and the host city of Tokyo is about canceling the Olympics. It is worth noting that the above text only gives the IOC the right to cancel, not the host city. Just as Yoshihide Suga said before, the Japanese government is unable to decide whether to cancel. International sports lawyer Alexander Miguel Meister once explained that as the “owner” of the Olympic Games, only the International Olympic Committee has the right to terminate the contract.
War or civil unrest is one of the reasons why the Olympics can be cancelled. Throughout the history of modern Olympic sports, the Summer Olympics have only been cancelled three times since they started in 1896. They were the Berlin Olympics in 1916, the Tokyo Olympics in 1940, and the London Olympics in 1944. The reasons are all: war.
Meister stated that one of the reasons why the Olympics can be cancelled is that “the International Olympic Committee has reasonable grounds to believe that the safety of Olympic participants will inevitably be threatened or endangered.” He went on to say that the Olympic Charter also stipulates that the International Olympic Committee should ensure the “health of athletes” and promote “safe sports.”
So, as the host country, can Japan, in violation of the decision of the International Olympic Committee, withdraw by itself?
Jack Anderson, an expert on sports law at the University of Melbourne, said: “According to various clauses in the host city agreement, if Japan unilaterally cancels the contract, then basically, the local organizing committee will bear the risks and losses.”
The Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee gave the latest cost of the postponed Tokyo Olympics last year: this figure is 1.64 trillion yen (about 154 billion yen), up 22% from the previous 1.35 trillion yen (about 12.6 billion U.S. dollars). One hundred million U.S. dollars). This also makes the Tokyo Olympics undoubtedly the “most expensive Olympics in history.” And this official estimate is still considered quite conservative.
According to previous calculations by experts from the Tokyo Nomura Research Institute, if the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics are cancelled this summer, Japan may lose 1.81 trillion yen (about 16.6 billion U.S. dollars).
Anderson believes: “The contract can foresee certain emergencies, but obviously the situation we are facing is unprecedented.” The only realistic assumption is that Japan and the International Olympic Committee will achieve a joint withdrawal within the framework of their contract.
Anderson believes that if this happens, insurance will play a role: the International Olympic Committee, the local organizing committee, and various broadcast sponsors have insurance. “It is certain that if the Tokyo Olympics is cancelled, it may become a similar event. The biggest insurance payment event in China, there is no doubt about this.”
Anxious sponsor
Today, “Olympic anxiety” has spread to sponsors of the Tokyo Olympics. The Tokyo Olympics, once regarded as a magic weapon for attracting gold, has become a “hot potato” for sponsors at all levels amidst the operating pressure caused by the epidemic and the rising opposition from the public.
Under the epidemic situation, sponsors of the Tokyo Olympics at all levels have been placed high hopes by the Tokyo Olympics organizers and the Japanese government to pay more for more sponsorships without reducing sponsorship due to postponement.
According to data provided by the International Olympic Committee, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics has raised more than 3.1 billion US dollars in sponsorship from 63 Japanese companies, which is almost three times that of the Beijing and London Olympics and twice that of the last two World Cup football matches. This does not include the investment in the Tokyo Olympic Games by the Olympic Global Partnership (TOP) program, such as Toyota and Panasonic, which are known as “top sponsors”. It is reported that the above-mentioned “top sponsors” signed contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars with the International Olympic Committee very early.
When overseas audiences are determined to miss the Tokyo Olympics, whether there are “zero audiences” or “half audiences” in the stadium, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee still has not given an answer. And a “zero spectator” stadium is destined to reduce the attractiveness of sponsors. Toyota, one of the sponsors, said last month that it has paid attention to the people’s resistance to the Tokyo Olympics. “We are worried about how to deal with it every day.”
The top sponsor in the media sector, Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, simply published an editorial on May 26, calling for the cancellation of the Tokyo Summer Olympics, on the grounds that the new crown pneumonia epidemic poses a risk to Japan’s public security and to the Japanese medical system pressure. The editorial mentioned above even pointed the finger at the International Olympic Committee, believing that the latter had scorned the safety of the athletes and insisted on holding the Tokyo Olympics.
According to Norm O’Reilly, a sports business analyst, the only thing that can comfort these sponsors a little bit is that at least they can get a share of the TV broadcast. “After experiencing an unprecedented epidemic People are eager to return to their normal lives, so there is reason to believe that the Olympic Games broadcast platform will attract billions of viewers by then. This is also what sponsors would like to see.”
Compared with the world-renowned “top sponsors”, sports law lawyer Taisuke Matsumoto believes that local sponsors may suffer the most. Before the epidemic, these local sponsors would broadcast Olympic-related advertisements on their platforms every day. “But since last year, they stopped doing so because the public’s sentiment towards the Tokyo Olympics has changed.” However, Taisuke Matsumoto believes that editorials such as “The Asahi Shimbun” are a special case. In fact, companies avoid disturbing public sentiment towards the Tokyo Olympics.
John Davis, an expert at Brand New View, a consulting firm focusing on sports promotion strategies and brand building, believes that local sponsors attach great importance to the influence of people’s emotions. “Sponsors are still trying to tell the story of the’Tokyo Olympics’. It is not a wise move to ignore the link between the two and the epidemic.”
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