In the first quarter of 2021, labor input, measured by hours worked, recorded a decrease of -0.2% compared to the previous quarter and -0.1% compared to the first quarter of 2020; GDP increased by 0.1 in quarterly terms and decreased by 0.8 in trend terms. These are the data from the Istat survey for the first quarter of 2021.
Permanent employment drops
On the job supply side, in the first quarter of 2021 the number of employees decreased by 243 thousand units (-1.1%) compared to the previous quarter, following the decrease in permanent employees (-1.1%) and of the self-employed (-2.0%) not compensated by the slight growth of temporary employees (+ 0.6%). At the same time, there was an increase in the number of unemployed (+103 thousand) and inactive people aged 15-64 (+98 thousand). The provisional monthly data for April 2021 – net of seasonality – indicate the continuation of the growth in employment (+20 thousand, + 0.1% in one month) recorded in the previous two months (after the sharp decline in January), which is associated with the increase in the number of unemployed (+88 thousand, + 3.4%) and the decrease in inactive people aged 15-64 (-138 thousand, -1.0%). employment (-889 thousand units, -3.9% compared to the first quarter of 2020) involves employees (-576 thousand, -3.2%), especially if on a fixed-term basis, and self-employed persons (-313 thousand, -6.0 ); the decline affects both full-time and part-time employees (-3.8% and -4.2%, respectively).
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Unemployed on the rise
The number of unemployed increases again (+240 thousand, 10.0% compared to the first quarter of 2020) – among those who have already had work experience – and the growth of inactive people continues, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous three quarters. between 15 and 64 years (+501 thousand, + 3.7% in one year). The 15-64 year-old employment rate, equal to 56.6%, decreased in short-term and trend terms (-0.6 and -2.2 points, respectively); those of unemployment and inactivity 15-64 years increase. The provisional data for the month of April indicate the cyclical increase in the employment rate (+0.1 points in one month) and unemployment (+0.3 points) and the decrease in that of inactivity (-0.3 points) . On the business side, the continuation of the measures to restrict economic activity in the first quarter of 2021 determines a slight economic growth for employees (+ 0.2%) and a still negative trend change (-0.8% ), albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter. These effects derive from an increase in the full-time component in economic terms (+ 1%), but also on an annual basis (+ 0.4%), which is offset by a reduction in the part-time component of – 1.7% on a quarterly basis and -3.7% on an annual basis.
Compared to the previous quarter, hours worked increased
Compared to the previous quarter, the hours worked per employee increased by 1%; also on a trend basis there is an increase, albeit more contained (+ 0.4%), associated with that of the use of layoffs, which reaches 108.4 hours for every thousand hours worked. The vacancy rate increases by 0.1 percentage points on a cyclical basis and by 0.8 on an annual basis. The cost of labor, per work unit, grew by 0.9% in economic terms, due to an increase in both wages (+ 0.5%) and social security contributions (2%). In trend terms, the cost of labor continues to rise (+ 0.8%), following the 1.6% increase in the remuneration component and despite the 1.2% reduction in charges; the latter decline is attributable to the adoption of the contribution exemption measures launched in the second half of 2020 which, albeit to a lesser extent than in the fourth quarter of 2020, continue to have an effect also in the first quarter of 2021.