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Original title: 8 trillion yuan of funds suddenly diverted, the biggest change in liquor is coming? The hottest track was also bad. The data in May dropped sharply. Is the A-share style more technological?
On weekends, undercurrents are surging!
Last Friday, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was transferred to the taxation department for collection. Among them, Hebei, Shanghai and other seven places started the pilot project on July 1, and the collection, management, and transfer work will be fully implemented across the country from January 1, 2022. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights by local governments in 2020 will be 8.4142 billion yuan. The above regulations mean that a large sum of money will be diverted and levied.
In the Internet, the news quickly caused heated discussions. The analysis believes that although the land tax and the national tax have been merged, this may not mean that the local government will lose this revenue.However, it is obvious that this huge revenue that was once considered to be included in the local government’s treasury will be more transparent. This may affect some changes: first, local government consumption behavior may be more inclined to standardization, the central government has always emphasized that the government must live a tight life; second, the pace of subdividing consumption tax collection to local governments will accelerate. These two points may be a major variable for the liquor sector, which is booming in today’s A-share market.
It is worth noting that the beauty sector, which has been on fire in the last two months, has also ushered in a bearish trend. In the middle of last week,HaohaishengkeThe shareholding reduction announcement caused a sharp drop in the stock price. last Friday,Longzi shares、Huaxi BiologicalAlso issued a shareholding reduction announcement. The pressure on this sector may not be small next week; in addition, according to Tmall’s May cosmetics sales data, there has been a sharp decline.
Liquor and beauty have variables, and the stock price position and valuation are not low. Under this background, will the style of the A-share market change?
8 trillion funds need to be diverted
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights by local governments in 2020 will be 8.4142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. In the first four months of this year, revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights by local governments was 2,138.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%. As we all know, this money has previously been in the wallet of the local government, and it has always been regarded as an important source of the local government’s small coffers. However, the flow of this money may soon be diverted.
Last Friday, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Administration of Taxation, and the People’s Bank of China published the “Regarding the transfer of four government non-tax revenues from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, special income from mineral resources, sea area use gold, and non-resident island use gold). The Notice of the Taxation Department on Relevant Issues (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”) decided to transfer all the above-mentioned four non-tax revenues collected by the natural resources department to the taxation department for collection. Starting from July 1, 2021, the provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) of Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Qingdao, and Yunnan provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, and cities under separate state planning) have been selected to carry out the pilot transfer of collection and management duties. Explore and improve the collection process, division of responsibilities, etc., to accumulate experience for the comprehensive implementation of transfer work. Areas that have not yet started the pilot transfer of collection, management, and transfer should actively prepare for the collection and transfer of four government non-tax revenues, and fully implement the transfer of collection, management and transfer from January 1, 2022.
How big is the impact of this diversion?Guojin SecuritiesSaid that after the transfer, the land transfer income will still be included in the local government fund budget management in full in accordance with the current policy, the income will be paid in full to the local treasury, and the expenditure will be arranged through the local government fund budget. For a long time, local government land revenues and expenditures are “not transparent”, and there are problems: under-expropriation, under-expropriation, and omission of land transfer income; income reduction or exemption in violation of regulations by means of expropriation and return, subsidies; idling, inflated land transfer income, etc. Due to the relative independence of the national tax system and local governments, after the transfer to the taxation department for collection, it will help solve the problem of delayed or missed payment of land transfer income and reduce the occurrence of illegal returns. In addition, for some areas with more inflated land income , The government fund budget may be forced to “squeeze water.”
Urban investment companies generally participate in the land transfer process in three ways: one is to participate in the primary development of land as the agent of land consolidation; the second is to obtain land asset injection; the third is to directly acquire land through open market “bidding, auction, and listing”. After the transfer to the taxation department, some urban investment may be affected. This transfer has little effect on the first and second methods. But in the third method, there may be two effects:
One is to affect the asset scale of urban investment companies. Since land transfer income is transferred to taxation departments for collection, it may significantly reduce the government’s illegal return of land transfer fees. It will be significantly more difficult for urban investment companies to “inflate” assets in the form of land purchase + return.
The second is to affect the cash flow of urban investment companies. After the transfer, the land transfer revenue and expenditure management will be more standardized. The urban investment company needs to pay the land transfer fee in full and on time. When the government returns the land transfer fee in a compliant manner, with the improvement of information transparency, the return rhythm It is bound to slow down and increase the time spent on capital for urban investment companies, which in turn affects liquidity.
The biggest variable in liquor stocks is coming?
For the stock market, the diversion of liquor stocks may be more disturbed. Why do you say that? The transfer of land income taxation may not affect the scale of local finances, but it greatly affects the transparency of local finances. Following the previous diversion, if government fund budgets are forced to “squeeze water”, it will inevitably affect local government consumption in the short term.
If the local government wants to change the situation of fiscal disturbance, there are three ways to go: one is to reduce consumption, the other is to make a fuss about equity, and the third is to look forward to the rapid downward shift of the right to collect consumption tax. Consumption reduction is not shown for the time being. From the perspective of equity, because liquor has risen tremendously in recent years, and it is indeed no longer cheap, two local governments have already reduced their holdings of liquor equity to change the financial situation. Since many liquor companies are state-owned enterprises, with the emergence of local government fiscal tightness, there may be some state-owned asset reductions one after another.
The most worth mentioning is the consumption tax. With the reform of land income tax collection, the pace of subordination of the consumption tax may accelerate. On October 9, 2019, the State Council issued the “Promotion Plan for Adjusting Central and Local Revenue Division Reform After Implementing Larger Tax Cuts and Fees” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), clearly proposing to maintain a stable value-added tax “five-five-year sharing” ratio. Adjust and improve the value-added tax credit and refund sharing mechanism, move the consumption tax collection link later, and steadily subdivide the three local reform measures. The purpose at that time was to ease local financial pressure.
However, this plan has been more than a year and a half in the past, and the move to subdivide the consumption tax has not yet been implemented. In April this year, Minister of Finance Liu Kun wrote an article that the direct tax system should be improved and the proportion of direct tax should be gradually increased. Improve the local tax system, cultivate local tax sources, and promote the backward movement of the consumption tax collection link in conjunction with legislation and steadily demarcate local governments.
Nowadays, with the transfer of land income tax collection, the operational space of local finance has become smaller. It is reasonable to expect that the decentralization of the consumption tax collection link will alleviate this situation. Prior to this, some experts said that the basic goal of the consumption tax reform is to ensure the stability of the existing financial resources of the central and local governments. And as the consumption tax is lowered to local governments, it may have a certain impact on liquor stocks in the short term, because liquor is almost the most profitable industry everywhere.
The hottest track was bad again
Liquor has variables, and the medical beauty sector is not flat.
Last Friday night,Longzi sharesAn announcement was made that natural person Shen Bingyun intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 19,976,900 shares through centralized bidding and block transactions, accounting for 4.49% of the total share capital. According to the data, Shen Bingyun is the father of the company’s controlling shareholder and actual controller, Mr. Shen Dongri, and the actual controller, Ms. Shen Jinhua, and is the person acting in concert with the company’s controlling shareholder and actual controller. Up to now, Shen Bingyun holds 19,976,900 shares of Langzi, with a shareholding ratio of 4.49%. If all the holdings are reduced, it is quite cleared.
Huaxi BiologicalIn the evening of last Friday, it was announced that the shareholder Yingrui Wuyuan, which holds 4.99% of the shares, plans to reduce its holdings of the company’s shares by no more than 4.8 million shares through a centralized bidding method, accounting for 1% of the company’s total share capital. The reduction period is within 3 months after 15 trading days are disclosed in this announcement. The scale of this reduction is not large, but Haohaishengke’s previous reduction of the company’s holdings caused the stock price to plummet.
In addition, according to Tmall’s data disclosed in May’s entire network sales and sales, the skin care segment sales fell 26.9% year-on-year, GMV fell 25.7% year-on-year, and 13.7% month-on-month; cosmetics sales and GMV fell 22.7% and 13.0% year-on-year, respectively. This means that the popularity of the entire sector has declined.
With the emergence of variables in the liquor and beauty sectors, will capital shift to technology? Recently, technology stocks have indeed seen some positives, such as the release of the Hongmeng system, Taiwan’s chip makers suffering from the epidemic, and the surge in peripheral technology stocks. However, the sustainability of technology stocks may be affected by two variables: one is the yield of government bonds. The index rebounded sharply last week, so technology stocks were suppressed in the second half of last week. In June, the impact of funding still exists, and the supply side of special bonds will usher in an explosion; second, the stickiness of funds, the two tracks of liquor and beauty have been popular for too long, attracting too many fans, new funds and Basically, foreign investment will be allocated to these two sectors. Unless there is a substantial negative or a cycle reversal, the siphon effect of these two plates will always exist.
Although, everyone understands one truth: there is no market that only rises and does not fall. However, investment always cannot avoid luck, fluke and misfortune, and people’s preferences are always luck and fluke. So, who would be unlucky? Leave time to solve it.
Sina statement: This news is reprinted from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com posted this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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