Waiting to know whether or not the next round of M&A will lead to the birth of a new big bank in Italy, the Jefferies analysts change their recommendation on the two big banks of the Belpaese, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit, removing the buy from the first one and promoting the bank for a few months under the guidance of Andrea Orcel.
On Intesa Sanpaolo, Jefferies analysts cut the recommendation to “hold” from the previous “buy” with an unchanged target price of 2.50 euros. While asset management and dividends are Intesa’s strengths, analysts are currently struggling to find catalysts capable of improving sentiment on Intesa.
Jefferies says buy on Unicredit for three reasons
Jefferies instead promotes Unicredit with a judgment that has risen to buy from the previous hold. The target price has been revised upwards from 9.30 to 12.25 euros. Jefferies believes that the Gae Aulenti square institute may be among the main beneficiaries of the better outlook on the volume of loans which should be an important support. Jefferies indicates two other factors that lead to a positive view on Unicredit: the buyback towards which up to 30% of 2021-23 profits could be diverted and the appeal linked to possible combinations.
Intesa today does not follow bank rallies
In Piazza Affari the Unicredit stock, among the best of the last month and with over + 40% of the YTD balance, marks + 3.3% to 10.84 euros, riding the promotion decided by Jefferies. Banco BPM (+ 1.53%) and Bper (+ 1%) are also doing well today. Without enamel instead Intesa Sanpaolo with + 0.1% to € 2.482.
Meanwhile, today he spoke about banking risk Alessandro Profumo, CEO of Leonardo. The top manager, who boasts a past at the helm of important banking companies, believes that the emergency has highlighted the drawbacks of having only two large banks. “I speak as a client as a large Italian company and I say that having only two large banking groups is a problem; when, during the Covid emergency, we asked for 2 billion additional credit lines to protect ourselves, dealing with only two banks was complicated and if one had pulled back it would have been a problem. I think we need at least a third major bank in Italy ”, were the words of Profumo speaking at the Forum in the Masseria.