Original title: Pork fell and fish meat rose. May Beijing CPI has something to watch
On June 10, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in May, the Beijing Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% month-on-month and rose 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. According to estimates, in the 1.2% year-on-year increase, the impact of the new price increase is about 0.9 percentage points, and the carry-over impact of last year’s price changes is about 0.3 percentage points. Among the food consumption that affects the CPI index, the price of pork continues to fall, but the price of freshwater fish has risen significantly due to factors such as supply and demand imbalances, which has caused concern.
Freshwater fish prices rose by more than 30% year-on-year
Under the impact of last year’s price changes, the CPI rose slightly in May. Among them, food prices have changed from a 1.4% year-on-year decline to an increase of 0.2% year-on-year, affecting the overall index increase by about 0.02 percentage points. From the perspective of the sub-indices that drive the city’s CPI, the price of fish has increased relatively significantly in food consumption.
According to statistics, the price of freshwater fish increased by 34.6%, an increase of 8 percentage points from April; and from a month-on-month point of view, aquatic products rose by 2.6%, driving the overall increase in CPI by about 0.03 percentage points. Among them, the price of freshwater fish increased by 10.1%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from April.
The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the price increase of freshwater fish is mainly affected by factors such as the reduction in the scale of aquaculture and the increase in feed costs. Monitoring data from the Information Center of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Agriculture further confirmed the price changes of freshwater fish. Data show that in May this year, the average price of freshwater fish in the city reached 19.37 yuan per kilogram, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 53.6% and 15.9% respectively. It is worth noting that the market volume of freshwater fish in the month was 7.004 million kg, with an average daily market volume of 226,000 kg, representing a year-on-year and month-on-month decline of 21.3% and 4.8%, respectively.
The relevant person in charge of the aforementioned department said that freshwater fish prices have continued to rise this year. The cumulative increase in freshwater fish prices in the first five months was 60%. However, the number of freshwater fish on the wholesale market has dropped significantly, and the imbalance between supply and demand of freshwater fish is significant. It is expected that freshwater fish prices will continue to rise in June.
Affected by seasonal factors, seasonal fruits such as big peaches, lychees and watermelons are on the market, and fruit prices have risen. According to statistics, in May, the city’s fruit prices rose by 2% and 2.1% year-on-year and 2.1% respectively; during the same period, the price of fresh vegetables dropped by 8.7%, affecting the overall index by about 0.14 percentage points. “From the historical monitoring point of view, this month’s vegetable price decline was relatively small, while the absolute price is still at a low level during the same period in history, which has somewhat compressed the room for decline in later vegetable prices. It is expected that vegetable prices in Beijing in June will continue to be the dominant player. Reached the lowest level since this year.” The aforementioned person in charge analysis pointed out.
Increase in the number of pork listings in the city
Since 2018, affected by the African swine fever epidemic, pork prices across the country have remained high. With the gradual recovery of pig breeding capacity, pig prices have entered a downward range. Similar to the national pork price trend, Beijing’s pork price fell by 26.3% and 10.5% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively.
With the recovery of live pig production capacity, the amount of pork on the market that month also expanded. According to statistics, in May of this year, the price of pork in the Beijing wholesale market was 23.14 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 35.4% and 15.1% respectively; the listing volume reached 15,100 tons that month, and the average daily listing volume was 488,000 kilograms, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The increase was 1.9% and 7.7% respectively.
“From the monitoring of the wholesale market, the supply-demand relationship in the pork market has continued to turn loose, the number of listings has increased steadily, and the price has continued to fall.” The person in charge believes that “throughout the current round of pork price changes, since June 2019, pork The context of price changes is basically clear, and the cyclical characteristics of pork price changes are also more obvious. The current cycle has not completely ended. This wave of pork price changes has never occurred in history. From the perspective of the law of pork price changes, Pork prices will continue to fall in the later period and will stay at a low level for a long time.”
The monitoring of Xinfadi, the largest farmer’s market in Beijing, shows that in May this year, the weighted average price of white striped pigs was 22.67 yuan/kg, a 16.78% drop from April’s 27.24 yuan/kg; and a 27.34 drop from March’s 31.2 yuan/kg. %; compared with 35.02 yuan/kg in February, a decrease of 35.27%; compared with 42.54 yuan/kg in January, a decrease of 46.71%.
Liu Tong, head of the Xinfadi Market Statistics Office, believes that the current need to pay attention to is that because the farms without self-reproduction and self-support have entered a loss-making situation, the phenomenon of retirement has appeared, which will affect the later pork supply capacity. This means that the rate at which meat prices continue to decline will slow down, or there will be a phased stop and stabilization. Therefore, farms need not panic due to the recent rapid decline in pig prices. Once the large-sized pigs come to an end, the price of meat may improve.
In addition to food, non-food consumer prices in May declined from April. According to statistics, the prices of the other seven categories rose by two quarters, three fell by two quarters. Among them, the prices of other supplies and services and housing rose by 0.7% and 0.3%, while the prices of transportation, communications, daily necessities and services, and medical care fell by 0.7%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively. The prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment remained flat.
The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Investigation Team of the National Bureau of Statistics believes that rising raw material prices have driven up the prices of industrial consumer goods such as washing machines, refrigerators, stoves, and televisions, with an increase of between 0.7% and 2%; affected by the rise in prices of international crude oil and gold. The prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively, and the price of gold jewellery rose by 3.5%. After the “May 1st” Golden Week, the prices of travel services fell, and the prices of air tickets, overseas accommodation and travel agency fees rose by 33% from the previous month. %, 8.6% and 6.7% turned into declines of 11.9%, 3.1% and 2.2%.
Beijing Commercial Daily reporter Tao Feng Liu Hanlin