Original title: Continuous rapid growth of foreign trade lays the foundation for annual growth
Source: Economic Information Daily
The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that foreign trade imports and exports reached a new high in May, continuing to show a trend of rapid growth. The achievement is mainly due to the competitiveness of “Made in China” and the gradual increase in external demand, coupled with the policy dividends of stabilizing foreign trade and opening up, and the low base contribution from the outbreak of the epidemic in the first half of last year.
Specifically, in terms of U.S. dollars, my country’s total import and export value in May 2021 was US$482.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The total export value was US$263.92 billion and the total import value was US$218.38 billion, respectively. Year-on-year growth of 30.1% and 51.2%. The foreign trade balance was US$45.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%.
First, the export growth rate has declined slightly, but still maintained rapid growth, which is in line with market expectations. Export growth has been maintained at a high speed in two aspects. The first is the continuous recovery of traditional overseas market demand and the continuous growth of overseas orders. At the same time, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has eased and the economy has recovered. However, the misalignment of supply and demand has further supported the maintenance of high growth in Chinese exports; The expansion of emerging market countries has achieved initial results, and exports to emerging market countries have continued to grow. However, exports of products related to epidemic prevention declined sharply in May, which may be due to external decline and increased competition.
The second is the substantial and rapid increase in imports, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 27.6% in trade surplus. The increase in imports in May was mainly due to the continuous increase in international commodity prices, and the increase in total imports of non-ferrous metals, crude oil and other commodities far exceeded the increase in the volume of imports. The increase in imports of soybeans and edible vegetable oil is mainly due to the strong demand in the domestic market. At the same time, in order to maintain food security, the import inventory has been increased.
Third, the total volume of imports and exports to major trading partner countries has been growing rapidly and positively, with an average year-on-year increase of 43% in total trade volume. The status of major trading partners and the growth rate of trade have not changed much, but trade with emerging economies has increased significantly. The top economies in terms of total import and export volume are still ASEAN (US$72.132 billion), the European Union (US$67.162.8 billion), the United States (US$57.993.5 billion), Japan (US$30.758 billion), and South Korea (US$29.631 billion). It is worth noting that among the trading partners with the largest increase in total exports and exports in May, emerging economies are very prominent, such as South Africa (136%), India (105%), the Philippines (81%), and Brazil (74%). The easing of bilateral relations between China and India and the spread of the domestic epidemic in India have resulted in the total trade volume with India exceeding the value of the same period in previous years for many consecutive months.
The continuous high-speed growth of foreign trade from January to May laid the foundation and established the tone for the high growth of foreign trade in the second half of the year and throughout the year. In the first five months, the total value of imports and exports in dollar terms increased by 38.1%, exports increased by 40.2%, imports increased by 35.6%, and the trade surplus increased by 70.2%. Such high-speed growth, even if the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year tends to be flat, it can also achieve a large increase in foreign trade throughout the year.
Looking at the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, three factors determine the basic trend. First, affected by the global economic recovery and the recovery of consumer demand and production demand in the international market, China’s overall foreign trade volume is expected to maintain a sustained high growth in the second half of the year. Second, due to the continued high global commodity prices, it is expected that the growth rate of imports will stabilize at a relatively high level in the next period of time. Third, thanks to China’s continued deepening of opening up, the scale of foreign trade with emerging market players will maintain an overall growth trend for a long time.
The development of foreign trade in the second half of the year also needs to pay attention to two challenges. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in European and American countries has gradually eased, and supply and demand are misaligned at this stage. However, with the recovery of production capacity in the European and American markets, demand in the external market may decline. China needs to pay close attention to the supply and demand trends in the international market. On the other hand, due to repeated epidemics in Southeast Asia and other regions, the once-feared industrial relocation has not occurred on a large scale, but it is still necessary to stay vigilant and insist on giving full play to the comprehensive advantages of policies, business environment, industrial chain, and human capital to increase international capital. Confidence in the Chinese market.
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