Summary
[26 brokerage interim strategy reports outline the four major high-quality tracks including A-share Nuggets Technology]Approaching the middle of the year, many investors are looking back at the gains and losses of the “first half” and are also full of investment opportunities in the “second half” Look forward to it. Where will China’s economy go in the second half of the year? How will the A-share market be interpreted? What investment opportunities are worth exploring? (Securities Daily)
Editor’s note: Near the middle of the year, many investors are looking forward to the investment opportunities in the “second half” while reviewing the gains and losses of the “first half”. Where will China’s economy go in the second half of the year? How will the A-share market be interpreted? What investment opportunities are worth exploring?
“Securities Daily” reporters on the 26 recently released intensively on the outlook for the second half of the yearBrokerageResearch reportAfter sorting it out, it was found that 21 research reports conducted research and judgment on the trend of A-shares in the second half of the year. Most brokerages gave “optimistic” expectations for the market in the second half of the year, believing that the stock market is expected to rise by the flow with the support of various favorable factors and out of the second half. The wave master rises the wave.
12 brokerages are optimistic about the second half and look forward to the second wave of the main rise
“Securities Daily” reporter combed the research reports of securities companies and found that there are 12 research reports of securities companies that are bullish on the trend of the A-share market in the second half of 2021.
among them,Industrial SecuritiesThe expectation is the most optimistic, believing that this year’s A-share market “is still young and still on its way.”Industrial SecuritiesAs early as the beginning of 2019, a “long bull” judgment was made on the current round of the market. The current round of bull market has lasted for two and a half years since its inception. Many investors believe that the current bull market has come to an end based on the experience of the A-share market in the past 30 years.butIndustrial SecuritiesHowever, he firmly believes that in the age of equity under the “quartet” of national attention, institutional allocation, resident allocation, and overseas allocation, the A-share bull market is still on the way due to factors such as open dividends, major innovations, and global mobile clocks. Long Niu Weiyang”.
In addition to Industrial Securities, Ping An Securities,China Galaxy、CITIC SecuritiesEtc. are also actively optimistic about the “second half” trend of A shares.
Ping An Securities expects that the A-share market will fluctuate upward in the second half of this year, and it is recommended to deploy growth stocks. Ping An Securities believes that the economy is basically facing upward pressure on the A-share market, and there are corresponding constraints on liquidity; however, there is continued favorable support for policy and funding in the second half of the year, which is expected to continue to increase market risk appetite.
Pay more attention to the “power of the stock market cycle”China GalaxyBelieve that this round of bull market has lasted for 30 months, exceeding all previous times in historyThe Shanghai Composite IndexwithGrowth Enterprise Market IndexThe duration of the bull market. Although the securitization rate is close to a high of 90%, there is no signal that the “bull market is over” at present. Therefore, maintaining the judgment of the “second half of the bull market” at the beginning of the year, there are still many opportunities worth exploring.
CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that the A-share market is “rising sailing with waves.” “Fan Qi” represents the resonant recovery of the global economy and the increase in investor risk appetite; “Raising the waves” refers to the gradual increase in market action, and A-shares will enter the resonant upward period in the “trilogy” of slow growth in the second half of the year. , And more room for upside in the fourth quarter. On the configuration,CITIC SecuritiesIt is recommended to dilute the cyclical thinking, focus on the growth sector in the third quarter, and increase the consumption sector in the fourth quarter.
“A-shares will maintain a volatile upward trend in the second half of the year, and systematic opportunities and risks are difficult to emerge.” Tong Diyi, general manager of Longying Fortune Assets, told a reporter from the Securities Daily.
GF Securities、Guosen Securities、China Merchants Securities, Shanghai Securities, Dongguan Securities and other securities firms are also optimistic about the A-share trend in the second half of the year. See more views.
GF SecuritiesIt is expected that the price increase of industrial commodities in the second half of the year will slow down significantly, and the long-term bondinterest rateUpside space is limited, and stock market risks are controllable.Corporate earnings in the second half of the year are still relatively optimistic, supported by the supply and demand gapPerformanceThe inertia of improvement is still there, and the situation of superimposed liquidity easing has moderately converged, and the A-share market is expected to ride on the flow under the structure of corporate profitability supported by resilience and liquidity is slow but not tight.
Guosen SecuritiesIt is pointed out that in a wave of classic recovery market, there will usually be situations in which the stock market adjusts based on concerns about liquidity contraction.However, from the perspective of the overall operating trend, the stock index will definitely be in line with commodity prices andinterest rateThe trend keeps rising in the same direction. After the adjustment after the Spring Festival holiday this year, the A-share market has basically been adjusted in place. After the end of the second quarter, the market will enter the second major wave of the year.
China Merchants SecuritiesSaid that inflation will fall in the second half of the year, and the stock market is likely to fluctuate upward. When looking forward to the trend of A-shares, Shanghai Securities stated that the economic recovery and inflation development in the second half of the year are complicated and uncertain, which may lead to changes in trade relations and RMB exchange rate expectations, as well as increase policy disturbances. The established trend of the transfer of residential asset allocation to equity assets still supports an upward shift in the focus of the market, and structural opportunities are still “broad and sky.”
Dongguan Securities also expects that the A-share market will fluctuate and rise in the second half of the year.Dongguan Securities stated that the continued improvement in the economic environment provided conditions for the A-share market to fluctuate and climb in the second half of the year. The structural changes in the main line of price increases lie inPPIToCPIOf conduction.The biggest variable that affects the trend of the A-share market iscurrencyPrior to the policy shift, the stock market was still in the allocation period.
Orient SecuritiesBe cautiously bullish on the A-share trend in the second half of the year.Orient SecuritiesIt is believed that the logic that supports the long-term upward trend of the A-share market has not substantially changed, but the change in policy expectations may become a new disturbing factor.
versusOrient SecuritiesCompared toHuatai SecuritiesMore clear.Huatai SecuritiesIt is believed that before the fourth quarter, there is no need to worry about China’s economy entering a stagflation-like stage, and there is no need to worry about the turning point of global liquidity.The end of the third quarter is expected to become the key, after OctoberGlobal stock marketPressure on both ends of profitability and valuation will gradually increase.
Bank of China SecuritiesIt is believed that in the second half of this year, major asset commodities and stocks will still be the first choice for asset allocation. It is expected that the A-share market earnings recovery cycle will continue in the second half of the year, and the overall annual earnings growth rate is expected to reach 15%-20%.
Private equity row netfundManager Hu Bo told the “Securities Daily” reporter: “In the second half of the year, I am optimistic about two aspects of investment opportunities. First, there are still opportunities for core assets that have actual performance support and can digest high valuations through growth; second, the global economy is gradually recovering. Under the background, the procyclical sectors benefiting from the economic recovery will still have better allocation value.”
Nine brokerages expect cautious structural market and volatile markets are still the focus
“Securities Daily” reporters found in the process of combing the research reports of securities companies that 9 securities companies were cautious about the trend of the A-share market in the second half of the year, and the market volatility and structural market conditions became the main focus.
West China SecuritiesIt is expected that the stock price differentiation between A-share “core asset” stocks will further intensify. The market in the second half of the year will be dominated by structural market, and systemic risks may appear in the fourth quarter.West China SecuritiesIt is believed that although inflation will rebound in the future, it is basically controllable, and equity assets are still one of the few assets that can be invested in the “allocation shortage” environment.West China SecuritiesAccording to the research report, in the second half of this year, the macro level will cause more disturbances to the operation of the A-share market, and market volatility will increase, and the trend will be relatively tortuous. In terms of points, the risk above 3500 points is greater than the chance, and the chance between 3150 points and 3300 points is greater than the risk. The upward trend of the global economy in the second half of the year will be further confirmed as time goes by, and the window period left for investors to operate will become smaller and smaller. The window period from “current to the third quarter” should be used well, and positions can be moderately controlled in the fourth quarter. . In terms of allocation, whether it is bonds or stocks, it is recommended to “not chase higher”.
Chuancai Securities also said that in the second half of the year, sector rotation will be more frequent and structural differentiation will continue. Unlike last year’s single valuation drive and the dominant performance drive in the first half of this year, the market in the second half of this year will no longer be a competition among various industries, and more inclined to comparisons within the industry, and valuation within the industry. Leading companies with low performance growth rates will receive more attention, and the stock prices of companies whose internal industry valuations are too high and performance growth rates are not as fast as expected may fall.
CICCIt is believed that under the impact of the epidemic, most economies and capital markets have the characteristics of “first-in, first-out, long-tail exit”, and the “asynchronous rhythm and structural differentiation” under the cover of total recovery will continue to become the background of asset price interpretation in the second half of the year. . Taking into account factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the judgment on the A-share market in the second half of the year is “overall neutral and structurally optimistic”, and it is recommended to “light index, heavy structure, and partial growth”. In terms of configuration, after the consolidation in the first half of the year, renewed emphasis on the “new economy” major trends such as industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading.
Southwest SecuritiesSaid that in the context of the normalization of the epidemic and the gradual normalization of policies, it is expected that the A-share market will be dominated by structural market in the second half of the year.
China SecuritiesSecurities believes that there will be no systematic opportunities in the A-share market in the second half of this year. The rise in U.S. Treasury interest rates and the periodic depreciation of exchange rates will have a negative impact on the A-share market. The choice of track and the judgment of expected returns will become asset allocation. The core considerations of the time.
Aijian Securities believes that the A-share market will continue to fluctuate in the second half of this year, but opportunities are also gestating, especially after the US monetary policy contraction signal is clear, the A-share market will gradually shift from liquidity-driven to performance growth-driven after digesting the pressure , This time point is expected to appear in the mid to late fourth quarter. Prior to this, the market was more cautious than in the first half of the year, and still focused on trading strategies. Pay attention to controlling the rhythm and positions, and it is not appropriate to participate in the whole process.
Northeast SecuritiesIt also adheres to the trend judgment of “the second half of the year is a shocking market.”Northeast SecuritiesIt is believed that “increasing profitability and downward creditability” will drive the second quarter market, and “topping profitability” will be the main line of A-share market operation in the second half of the year. The current disagreement on the market outlook is mainly about whether the economy is heading towards stagflation or sustaining recovery. Instead of focusing on a direction in the disagreement, it is better to find a more definite main line, that is, the period of the fastest profit growth has passed, and A shares in the second half of the year. The dominant factor in the market will be “profit topping.”
Guojin SecuritiesIt is believed that the subject terms of the A-share market in the second half of the year are “inflation” and “capital expenditure.”Potential risks come from inflationary pressuresMidlandReserves triggered tightening panic version 2.0, emerging markets may increase volatility. But in the early and mid-term of global capital expenditure expansion, global demand is usually not too bad; in the capital expenditure expansion stage, inflation still has demand support, and the probability of stagflation is low. The A-share market will peak ahead of inflation, with a high probability or in the middle of the third quarter. In the inflation phase, general liquidity is ahead of the stock market peaking, and the stock market is ahead of inflation peaking. The current M1 may be in the top range, and inflation may peak at the end of the third quarter.
SPDB International believes that the current stock market cycle is already at a high level, and the overall need to be cautious. Due to the epidemic factors, the recovery progress has been misaligned, making this cycle different from the past. The release of demand in the European and American markets creates a spillover effect, which helps China delay the peak time and smooth the downward slope.
What market risks may exist in the A-share market in the second half of the year? In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Liu Youhua, the research director of private equity ranking network, said that the risks in the A-share market in the second half of the year are limited, mainly concentrated in: global excess liquidity, inflation risks, etc.Once the epidemic is effectively improved, the United States is likely to shrink liquidity in order to avoid overheating of the economy due to loose policies, which will cause a reversal of global liquidity. This will have a negative impact on core assets whose valuations have rebounded to high levels.Cash flowThe trend of RMB appreciation and RMB appreciation may decelerate.
Zhou Wenming, co-founder of Lingze Investment, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the market isMidlandThe expectation of the Reserve to raise interest rates is getting higher and higher, which will be bad for risky assets and suppress the valuation of the stock market. Although China’s economic recovery is good, and corporate earnings growth can offset the impact of valuation declines to a certain extent, investors should be prepared to accept market turbulence in the short to medium term, especially in industries with large increases and overvaluations. For sectors and individual stocks, more attention should be paid to the control of risks.
Consumption, technology, new energy, carbon neutral and public institutions are optimistic about these four major tracks
The “Securities Daily” reporter counted on the A-share strategy report released by 26 securities firms in the second half of 2021 and found that growth varieties are generally favored by institutions. The brokerage research report generally believes that the market style will return to growth in the second half of the year, and will pay more attention to the sustainability of corporate profitability; the four high-quality tracks of technology, consumption, new energy, and carbon neutrality are expected to become the key areas of the layout in the second half of this year .
Investment opportunities in the second half of the consumer track include Industrial Securities,China SecuritiesSecurities,Orient SecuritiesThe 16 brokerages, etc., are optimistic.
China SecuritiesSecurities believes that there will be no systematic opportunities in the A-share market in the second half of this year, and the importance of determining track selection and expected returns will become more prominent, and growth stocks will dominate. We are optimistic about the pharmaceutical and biological, new energy vehicles, new energy and other industries, which have long-term upside potential. At the same time, we are optimistic about the stability and long-term profitability of the consumer industry.
CITIC SecuritiesIt is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking in terms of allocation and attach importance to valuation flexibility. In the third quarter, we can focus on high-growth products, and in the fourth quarter, we can increase the allocation of large consumer sectors.
CICCIt is suggested that the allocation should be “light index, heavy structure, and partial growth”. After the consolidation in the first half of the year, we will re-emphasize the “new economy” megatrends such as industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading.
Ren Tao, a researcher at the Investment Research Department of Guangdong-funded Funds, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that innovation and consumption upgrades are the two main investment lines in the second half of the year. With the acceleration of the domestic population aging, people’s pursuit of high-quality medical resources continues to increase, and medical and medical consumption has the characteristics of rigid demand. Recently, policies on medical insurance and medical reforms have frequently appeared. Therefore, the concept of biomedical superimposed pension is optimistic.
The technology track was acquired by Industrial Securities,Northeast SecuritiesWaiting for 13 brokers collectively optimistic.
Industrial Securities’ A-share strategy report for the second half of 2021 shows that in the second half of the year, it is mainly optimistic about the growth direction of big innovation and technology catalyzed by policy and performance, focusing on artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AIoT), medicine, new energy chain, high-end manufacturing equipment and other fields. Specifically, there are four major sub-chains: First, the Internet of Everything. China’s domestic operating system represented by Hongmeng is interconnected with smart terminals, mobile phones, automobiles, etc. The opportunities that bred are worthy of attention, mainly focusing on the fields of computer, communication, electronics, etc. ; The second is the pharmaceutical sector, which combines innovation, prosperity, technology and consumption attributes, and can focus on medical equipment, medical services, etc.; the third is the new energy chain and intelligent driving, which are comparable to the ten-year golden growth cycle of consumer electronics. Under the goal of “peak, carbon neutral”, driven by the three-wheeled drive of policy, demand, and technological change, it can focus on subdivisions such as new energy materials, lithium battery equipment, automobiles, and smart driving; the fourth is high-end manufacturing equipment, mainly made in China Moving towards high-end and localization, in line with industry needs and economic development, we can focus on the semiconductor chain, military industry and other directions.
Guojin SecuritiesA shares in the second half of 2021marketing strategyThe report stated that core assets will collapse, cycles will fade away, and technology may be relayed. The semiconductor equipment, lithium battery equipment, automation equipment, etc., benefiting from the expansion of capital expenditures, and the increasingly cost-effective semiconductor technology sectors are worthy of attention.
In addition to brokerage firms, private equity funds are also optimistic about investment opportunities in the technology sector. In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Liu Youhua, research director of private equity rankings, said that it is unlikely that comprehensive investment opportunities will appear in the A-share market in the second half of this year, but there are still obvious structural opportunities. From the perspective of market style, the recent high volume of the Sci-tech Innovation Board, which has been adjusted for more than a year, may be a sign that deserves attention. The fundamentals of technology stocks have improved significantly, and policy support is also a bright spot, which deserves attention.
Ren Tao also said that in June and July during the interim report disclosure period, it is expected that industries and related companies with strong interim performance certainty and high performance growth will be more favored by funds in the short term. In the medium term, the autonomous and controllable growth of science and technology has benefited from the catalysis of policies. In the second half of the year, we can actively deploy technology sectors with high-growth advantages around the context of economic restructuring and industrial upgrading.
The new energy track is collectively favored by 8 brokers including Northeast Securities and Chuancai Securities.
Chuancai Securities believes that under the background of “carbon neutrality”, the new energy industry will be differentiated, and the focus can be on both the technological path and the cost advantage. At the end of June, the national carbon emission trading market will soon be online trading, which is expected to promote the transition of corporate energy consumption to low-carbon, and the new energy industry will benefit. In terms of photovoltaics, policy support, the economy of new energy, and the demand for stable power supply will drive a substantial increase in the demand for photovoltaic installations this year.
Northeast Securities believes that the current market is in a period of peaking profitability, and the overall valuation is difficult to increase. Low-valued and high-prosperous industries will dominate the allocation. New energy in technology manufacturing has low valuations and high prosperity. , The new energy sector under the “carbon neutral” framework is worthy of attention.
The “Carbon Neutrality” track is favored by 8 brokers including Industrial Securities and Cinda Securities.
Cinda Securities pointed out in its 2021 mid-term strategy report that it will make efforts to become “carbon neutral” and move towards intelligence. Cinda Securities believes that the determination of the “carbon neutral” target has a significant boost to sub-sectors such as photovoltaics, lithium power, hydrogen energy, and nuclear power.
Bank of China SecuritiesIt is also recommended that the second half of the year focus on investment opportunities with the theme of “carbon neutrality”. There are four main logics: one is that leading companies can enhance their competitive advantage in the process of reducing production capacity in high-carbon industries; the other is the process of replacing traditional energy with clean energy. It will bring development opportunities for the entire industry chain; third, the demand for circular economy, solid waste treatment, new materials, carbon capture, carbon recycling and other fields derived from energy saving, material saving, and consumption reduction will increase accordingly; fourth, environmental protection advantages The company’s carbon rights increase in value.
(Source: Securities Daily)
(Original title: 26 brokerage mid-term strategy reports outline the four major high-quality tracks including A-share Nuggets Technology)
(Editor in charge: DF372)
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