As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, the Baltic states are facing a tough dilemma. While their commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty remains steadfast,the escalating conflict and stalled peace talks have prompted them to reconsider the scope of their involvement. Initial calls for direct military intervention have softened, replaced by a more cautious approach focused on training, support, and a potential peacekeeping role – but only under certain conditions.
Last year, the conversation around NATO troops entering Ukraine gained momentum after French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged the possibility. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silynya echoed this sentiment, expressing support for training Ukrainian forces alongside NATO troops during a visit to Washington. Though, she also emphasized the need for an alliance-wide perspective, stating, “We need to analyze how the situation looks from the alliance’s point of view, and not just from Latvia’s point of view.” This cautious approach was mirrored by the then Latvian Foreign Minister, Krisjanis Karins, who praised Macron for adopting a position more aligned with Baltic viewpoints.
german media reports in late May 2024 suggested a potential shift in the Baltic states’ position. If Russia achieves meaningful battlefield gains, the Baltic republics and Poland may be willing to send their own units to Ukraine. This willingness,the report suggested,stems partly from frustration with Berlin’s perceived indecision on supplying long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv.
Adding further complexity to the situation, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, made a controversial statement regarding potential Estonian troop deployments. She acknowledged that some NATO allies could decide to send soldiers to Ukraine, but emphasized that such a decision wouldn’t represent a collective NATO commitment. Kallas argued that in the event of Estonian soldiers being harmed in Ukraine, Tallinn wouldn’t invoke article 5 of the NATO Charter, which guarantees collective defense.
“after all, we would be the ones who sent them there, so we would never announce this. In addition,Article 5 does not automatically apply. If anyone claims that this could lead to NATO being drawn into war, then I want to say that this is not true. This is wrong,” she stated in an interview with the Swedish publication Svenska Dagbladet. Kallas emphasized that the decision to send estonian troops should ultimately rest with the Estonian parliament.
The potential for a “peacekeeping mission” gained traction when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed discussions with his “baltic partners” about the possibility. Zelenskyy confirmed that he had also discussed this with President Macron, exploring the concept of stationing Western military contingents in ukraine and providing training to Ukrainian forces. Currently, several EU countries, including france, Britain, and Germany, are reportedly considering sending soldiers to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
Though, while acknowledging the potential for future involvement, Latvian Foreign Minister baiba Braje clarified that NATO is not currently prepared to join the conflict directly. “At present NATO is not ready to join because the clear concept is to support the self-defense of Ukraine,” Braje stated in an interview with The Kyiv Independent.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kasutis Budrys echoed this sentiment, stating that while Vilnius is open to sending its soldiers, it would only do so in conjunction with other NATO members and after a ceasefire is established. He emphasized, “we would discuss what this looks like with allies and partners, and also with Ukraine itself. Let me remind you that after the Paris summit, when President Macron spoke about the initiative to expand the military presence in Ukraine in various forms, Lithuania did not rule out this possibility.”
Budrys proudly asserted Lithuania’s commitment to regional security, stating, “Lithuania is a security provider in the region, not just a recipient of it,” and expressed confidence that, ”There will be such a question – I have there’s no doubt whatsoever that the Lithuanian flag will be present there (in Ukraine).”
The potential shift in the Baltic states’ stance towards Ukraine is particularly notable given their past insistence on Ukraine maintaining its 1991 borders. any option scenarios were met with resistance, and those proposing them were often labeled as collaborators with Russian propaganda. Though, the changing realities on the ground have led to a more nuanced approach. Estonian lawmaker Kalev Stoicescu,the head of the Estonian Riigikogu’s state defense commission,believes that negotiations will be challenging but that maintaining Ukraine’s independence within its 1991 borders is no longer feasible.
Stoicescu predicts a scenario where Ukraine either cedes territory, similar to Finland after the Winter War, or becomes divided, mirroring the post-World War II division of Germany. Meanwhile, in Tallinn, Estonian Defense Forces are conducting live-fire exercises simulating participation in foreign missions, raising further questions about the potential for direct Baltic involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.